At Rise of AI 2016 in Berlin, Ehssan Dariani, an economist and entrepreneur who founded the largest social network in German-speaking Europe before Facebook, argues that discussions of artificial intelligence and the singularity ignore social and political consequences. He says the world today is the best it has ever been, citing rising life expectancy and sharply lower war deaths since 1945, and argues terrorism carries little real risk but a large psychological effect, which a more statistically literate public would resist better. He predicts the Middle East and Africa will become more like Western Europe within two to three decades, pointing to secularization in Iran as an early sign. On the singularity itself, he compares skepticism about machines surpassing human intelligence to asking how apes created humans, framing it as an evolutionary process rather than a deliberate one. On jobs, he predicts most people will eventually live like today's wealthy who do not need to work, but warns that network effects are concentrating wealth and power in a small number of technology companies, and that groups such as displaced taxi drivers need an unconditional basic income funded by heavily taxing large tech corporations. He also argues for legalizing drugs.
Key takeaways
- Dariani argues public discussion of AI and the singularity largely ignores social and political consequences.
- He says the world today has the lowest war deaths and highest life expectancy in history, and that terrorism is mostly psychological warfare with little actual risk.
- He predicts the Middle East and Africa will become more like Western Europe within two to three decades, citing secularization trends in Iran.
- He compares skepticism about machine intelligence surpassing humans to asking how apes created humans, framing it as an evolutionary rather than deliberate process.
- He proposes taxing large tech corporations heavily to fund an unconditional basic income for workers displaced by automation, such as taxi drivers affected by Uber.
Detailed notes
A missing social and political lens on AI
Dariani opens by describing his own path from refugee child in Germany to economist and entrepreneur who founded the largest social network in German-speaking Europe before Facebook existed. He says that when people discuss artificial intelligence and the singularity they rarely analyze the social and political impact, which is the gap he wants to address. Referencing a viral image showing how much technology now fits in a pocket, he adds his own idea that within about 30 years a person could themselves 'disappear as a snippet of software,' arguing that plans for manned space missions look as outdated as 1985-era guesses about future typewriters.
The world is better than perceived, and terrorism is mostly psychological
He argues the world today is the best it has ever been, pointing to rising life expectancy and a sharp decline in war deaths since 1945 compared with the toll of the Second World War, when more than 10,000 soldiers could die in a single day. He contrasts this with far lower casualty figures from more recent conflicts and argues terrorism is a form of psychological warfare used by weak actors precisely because it has little actual effect on personal risk, saying societies need better statistical and mathematical literacy so people are less intimidated by it.
A prediction for the Middle East and Africa
Dariani predicts the Middle East and Africa will resemble Western Europe within roughly two to three decades, pointing to Iran, his birthplace, where he says the majority of people in big cities are today secular and liberal even though changing the state itself takes longer. He credits rising education and access to smartphones and the internet in poorer regions with driving this shift, and cautions against judging change on a two-year timescale, citing the Arab Spring as an example of expectations that were too impatient.
Jobs, wealth concentration and a call for basic income
On the singularity itself, he compares doubts that machines could surpass human intelligence to asking how apes created humans, framing it as an evolutionary process that happens without deliberate design. On the future of jobs, he suggests looking at how wealthy people who do not need to work spend their time as a preview of a future where most people live that way within 20 to 30 years. He raises concern, however, that network effects are making a small number of Silicon Valley companies, including Amazon, Google and Facebook, increasingly wealthy and powerful, citing Uber's disruption of taxi driver jobs, often held by older workers with immigrant backgrounds who will struggle to find new work. His proposed solution is heavy taxation of large tech corporates' profits to fund an unconditional basic income for people displaced by automation, alongside legalizing drugs and medicine rather than prohibiting them.
Q&A highlights
Asked about his own experience, Dariani says he has not needed to work for about ten years after previously being one of the poorest students at his university. He says people without the need to work vary widely: some become workaholics trying to prove themselves, some fall into partying and depression from a lack of structure, and he expects depression to grow in society despite rising wealth, offset partly by better antidepressants. He argues job losses will not make people rich on their own, so the state must tax large tech companies heavily to fund an unconditional basic income, which he argues would give people higher purchasing power, including cheap flights and restaurants, than citizens had in socialist countries.
Quotes
Today we are living in the best world possible. The world was never as good as it is today.
Ehssan Dariani
If terrorism was a powerful tool, Stalin in 1942 would have sent two suicide bombers to Berlin, but not two million soldiers.
Ehssan Dariani
Questions answered in this talk
Does Ehssan Dariani think the world is getting worse or better?
At Rise of AI 2016, Ehssan Dariani argues the world today is the best it has ever been, citing rising life expectancy and a sharp decline in war deaths since 1945, and says public perception is skewed by biased news coverage.
What solution does Ehssan Dariani propose for jobs lost to automation?
Ehssan Dariani proposes at Rise of AI 2016 that large technology corporations be taxed heavily and the proceeds used to fund an unconditional basic income for workers displaced by automation, such as taxi drivers affected by Uber.
How does Ehssan Dariani respond to skepticism that machines could surpass human intelligence?
He argues at Rise of AI 2016 that the question is like asking how apes created humans: surpassing intelligence happens as an evolutionary process that occurs without anyone deliberately planning it.