At Rise of AI 2022 in Berlin, Björn Bringmann, partner and managing director of Deloitte's AI Institute, argues that the world is in a global AI race worth an estimated 12 trillion dollars a year, three times Germany's annual GDP, and that Europe still has a realistic chance to keep a seat at the table. He dates the modern race to 2015-2016, when AlphaGo's win over Lee Sedol triggered what he calls a Sputnik moment for China and prompted the Obama administration to accelerate AI policy. He contrasts three regional goals, US efficiency, Chinese social cohesion and European humanism, and shows the US far outspending Europe and China on R&D while China is closing the gap in both funding and startup activity. Drawing on a Deloitte survey of nearly 3,000 executives in 12 countries, he shows Germany and Europe lagging in turning AI investment into results compared with China. He closes by arguing Europe's biggest risk is not AI itself but the opportunity cost of inaction, and calls for more trust-building, a genuine EU digital single market, more public research funding, and a stronger pan-European innovation ecosystem.
Key takeaways
- Bringmann estimates AI represents 12 trillion dollars of annual global value, three times Germany's GDP.
- He identifies AlphaGo's 2016 win over Lee Sedol, alongside Obama-era AI policy moves, as the starting point of the current AI race and a 'Sputnik moment' for China.
- He contrasts three regional goals: US efficiency, Chinese social cohesion, and European humanism.
- A Deloitte survey of nearly 3,000 executives in 12 countries found Germany and Europe have a comparatively high share of AI 'underachievers' compared with China.
- He argues Europe's biggest AI risk is the opportunity cost of inaction, illustrated by an estimated 200 trillion dollar cost of not addressing climate change over 30 years.
Detailed notes
A 12 trillion dollar race
Bringmann opens by framing AI as a 'general purpose technology', comparable to the steam engine or electricity, that initially looks unclear in application before becoming pervasive. He cites an estimate that AI represents 12 trillion dollars of value annually worldwide, three times Germany's 4 trillion dollar GDP, spread across every industry including ones not yet invented. He argues the technology's future impact is already visible, just unevenly distributed globally.
When the race started
He traces the modern AI race to around 2015-2016, when AlphaGo's win over Lee Sedol in Go, a game many assumed computers could not master, coincided with the Obama administration ramping up AI policy. He calls AlphaGo a 'Sputnik moment for China', arguing it pushed China to make AI leadership a top strategic priority.
Three regions, three goals
Bringmann describes the US, China and Europe as racing toward different goals: the US toward efficiency ('pure capitalism'), China toward social cohesion, and Europe toward humanism, a value proposition he says draws people to migrate to Europe. On R&D spending among the top 2,500 computer science and IT companies, the US outspends Europe roughly tenfold, with Europe and China roughly level; on AI publication counts Europe sits in the middle, though he notes Chinese publication quality has risen sharply since his own PhD years. Among the top twelve R&D spenders, all are technology companies except Volkswagen, the Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche Holding, and the US's Johnson & Johnson, making Volkswagen and Roche the only non-tech European entries; Amazon and Alphabet have both doubled their AI R&D spending year over year.
Startups, unicorns and funding
He reports the US holds about 65% of startups across the three regions, Europe about 20-22%, and China about 12%, but on unicorns the US has around 600, China nearly 200, and Europe around 80; Chinese startup funding volume, he says, 'by far outstrips' the other two regions. On turning AI investment into results, a Deloitte double-blind survey of nearly 3,000 executives in 12 countries classified companies as starters, achievers, underachievers or transformers; Germany and Europe show comparatively high shares of underachievers, while China shows a large share of companies that both try and succeed, a group he expects to convert into leading 'transformers' within two years.
Opportunity cost, trust and Europe's next steps
Bringmann argues Europe's underlying obstacle is fear rather than capability, and adds a third risk category beyond misuse and missed opportunity: opportunity cost, illustrating it with an estimate that inaction on climate change could cost 200 trillion dollars over 30 years. He cites Deloitte's six-area framework for building trustworthy AI systems, developed alongside EU policy work on trust. He calls for a genuine EU digital single market to let companies scale across borders as easily as in the US or China, and for more public research funding, contrasting Germany's roughly 6 billion euro AI investment with the similar cost of Berlin's BER airport and noting IBM Watson's roughly 1 billion dollar five-year budget against Harvard's 2 billion dollars a year. He closes by calling for a Silicon Valley-style ecosystem connecting society, industry, research and government, name-checking a friday summer event at a Berlin AI park, and for public education efforts to build comfort with AI, comparing the goal to why CERN exists for physicists.
Q&A highlights
Asked for best practices in communicating AI to the public, Bringmann cites Helsinki's free public AI course aimed at reaching 1% of Finland's population, which reached 2% instead, and argues companies should talk to employees directly about fears rather than relying only on top-down messaging. Asked what would give large industrial corporations more fear of missing out, he points to Tesla as a tech company disrupting automakers and says Volkswagen's CEO has responded by raising R&D investment, while other incumbents may simply not survive the transition.
Quotes
Once a new technology rolls over you, if you're not part of the steamroller, you're part of the road.
Björn Bringmann
It will take all the running that we can do to just stay where we are, but if we want to advance we need to do a little more.
Björn Bringmann
Questions answered in this talk
How big is the global AI opportunity according to Deloitte?
At Rise of AI 2022, Björn Bringmann cites an estimate of 12 trillion dollars in annual global AI-driven value, three times Germany's annual GDP, spread across every industry.
When did the global AI race really start?
According to Björn Bringmann at Rise of AI 2022, the race accelerated around 2015-2016 when AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol at Go and the Obama administration stepped up AI policy, an event he calls a Sputnik moment that pushed China to prioritize AI.
Is Europe falling behind the US and China on AI?
Björn Bringmann says at Rise of AI 2022 that the US outspends Europe roughly tenfold on AI R&D and has far more unicorns and funding than Europe, but that Europe, with about 80 unicorns and a strong humanist value proposition, still has a realistic chance to keep a seat at the table if it builds a genuine digital single market and stronger ecosystem.