At Rise of AI 2025 in Berlin, Rafael Laguna de la Vera, director of SPRIND, Germany's Federal Agency for Disruptive Innovation, argues that Europe needs a more optimistic, self-built vision of the future and describes how SPRIND tries to fund the breakthroughs that create it. He traces SPRIND's founding to Angela Merkel's 2017 decision and the four years it took to pass the SPRIND Liberty Law freeing the agency from standard ministry procurement rules, modeled on how the US founded NASA and DARPA after Sputnik. He argues Germany produces twice as many patents per capita as the US from strong basic research, yet only a twentieth as many unicorns, because later-stage funding is scarce and 80 percent of trade sales above a 25-million-euro valuation go outside Europe. He details SPRIND's two funding tools, fast 'challenges' with concrete deadlines and always-open project proposals, illustrated by a 35-million-euro broadband antiviral challenge launched during COVID, and describes SPRIND's push into new AI architectures, distributed compute and alternative computing hardware such as neuromorphic and optical computing to reduce dependence on massive GPU data centers.
Key takeaways
- Laguna says it took four years to pass the SPRIND Liberty Law freeing SPRIND from standard federal procurement rules, after ministries had stripped its promised freedoms.
- He argues Germany produces about twice as many patents per capita as the US but only a twentieth as many unicorns, due to a later-stage funding gap.
- He says 80 percent of German trade sales above a 25-million-euro valuation go to buyers outside Europe.
- SPRIND's 35-million-euro broadband antiviral challenge, launched during COVID, funded nine teams at 700,000 euros each within about three weeks of application.
- SPRIND's budget grew from zero in 2020 to 250 million euros this year, having launched 11 challenges and funded roughly 200 projects.
Detailed notes
A positive narrative for the future
Laguna opens by arguing that Europe has lost optimism about the future, partly because social media algorithms feed negative content, and that the best way to predict the future is to build it. He tells the audience that as AI builders they carry responsibility for shaping a positive future narrative, comparing powerful technology to a knife whose use depends on the people building it, and argues creating and communicating a positive vision is the necessary first step.
Why a government agency funds breakthrough innovation
He describes SPRIND as the government agency for breakthrough innovation, founded because very early-stage, very expensive innovation, such as AI gigafactories with 100,000 GPUs, rarely attracts private capital. He draws the parallel to the US founding NASA and the DARPA after the 1958 Sputnik shock, freeing those agencies from normal bureaucratic constraints. Angela Merkel decided to create a German equivalent in 2017; Laguna was brought in in 2019 to help build it, only to find the promised freedoms had been stripped away by ministries during the founding delay. It took four more years of work, credited partly to colleague Mario, to pass the SPRIND Liberty Law that finally gave SPRIND freedom from standard federal budget and procurement rules, signed on December 30 after Laguna made his contract renewal conditional on it.
Germany's patents-to-unicorns gap
Laguna argues Germany has strong basic research, writing roughly twice as many patents per capita as the US, but only about a twentieth as many unicorns, because startups can raise seed and Series A funding but struggle to secure later-stage capital or complete an IPO domestically, often exemplified by companies like BioNTech listing on Nasdaq instead. He says 80 percent of trade sales above a 25-million-euro valuation end up outside Europe, calling this both an economic loss and, in his view, a threat to democracy if Europe fails to build the industries of the coming decades.
How SPRIND funds innovators
He explains SPRIND runs two funding mechanisms. 'Challenges' pose a concrete problem with an eight-week application window and a fast selection process; he illustrates this with the 2021 broadband antiviral challenge, launched with a 35-million-euro budget during COVID to find fast, mutation-adaptable antiviral treatments, which drew 47 applications by the deadline and selected nine teams for 700,000 euros each in year-one funding, paid out as revenue-generating orders within roughly two to three weeks of application. The second mechanism, always-open project proposals, offers 'validation contracts' of up to 200,000 euros to evaluate promising ideas, followed by grants up to one million euros for new companies, co-investment with private venture up to 70 percent of a funding round with no fixed cap, or grants up to 35 million euros for early technology requiring a roughly 25 percent private contribution. He says SPRIND's budget has grown from zero in 2020 to 250 million euros this year, having launched 11 challenges and funded around 200 projects, including a 45-million-euro laser project and an 80-million-euro Alzheimer's clinical trial.
Applying the model to AI
Turning to AI specifically, Laguna says SPRIND's strategy, published on its website, argues Germany should not simply build ever-larger GPU data centers but invent new model architectures, new data modalities and 'compound compute' that can train models while keeping data distributed. He cites the agency's compound learning challenge, already running with seven teams, aimed at reducing dependence on centralized 100,000-GPU clusters, and describes plans for a further challenge combining new AI algorithms with new computing hardware, including neuromorphic, in-memory, optical, reservoir and quantum computing, aiming eventually to shrink AI compute the way DARPA shrank GPS receivers down to fingernail size inside smartphones.
Q&A highlights
Asked how he manages expectations for technologies like fusion energy or AGI, Laguna says honesty is the only approach, comparing his own 15-years-plus-or-minus-five estimate for fusion to the wide range of answers AI experts would give for reaching broadly useful AI tools. He rejects the idea that outcomes can be reliably predicted, describing SPRIND's approach as a 'serendipity culture' that allows for happy accidents, and says that if outcomes could simply be calculated in a spreadsheet, an agency like SPRIND would not be needed.
Quotes
The best way to predict the future is to build it.
Rafael Laguna de la Vera
Who owns AI will own the world.
Rafael Laguna de la Vera
I'm a general manager not an astrologer.
Rafael Laguna de la Vera
Questions answered in this talk
Why did SPRIND take four years to become fully operational?
According to Rafael Laguna de la Vera at Rise of AI 2025, although Angela Merkel decided to create SPRIND in 2017, ministries had stripped away its promised administrative freedoms by the time he joined in 2019, and it took another four years to pass the SPRIND Liberty Law restoring them, signed on December 30 of that year.
Why does Germany have fewer unicorns despite strong research output?
According to Rafael Laguna de la Vera, Germany writes about twice as many patents per capita as the US thanks to strong basic research, but only about a twentieth as many unicorns, because later-stage funding is scarce and roughly 80 percent of trade sales above a 25-million-euro valuation go to buyers outside Europe.
How does SPRIND fund breakthrough AI and technology projects?
According to Rafael Laguna de la Vera, SPRIND runs time-limited 'challenges' with fast selection and payout, such as its COVID-era antiviral challenge, alongside always-open project proposals offering validation contracts, grants up to 35 million euros, and co-investment with private venture up to 70 percent of a funding round.